The Magic Economics of Gambling



First
By the 18th century, the term "statistics" designated the systematic collection of demographic and economic data by states.
Second
The term "mathematical statistics" designates the mathematical theories of probability and statistical inference, which are used in statistical practice.
Third
Blaise Pascal, an early pioneer on the mathematics of probability.



The Magic Economics of Gambling



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Karl Pearson was a founder of mathematical statistics.


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The Magic Economics of Gambling

Car insurance works because I'm forced to have it
We really need to invest more in education.
The one thing that makes clear sense here is that gamblers ignore the clear evidence that the gambling companies earn billions each year and it is all money taken from punters who lose. Or for example apparently Australians lose $25 billion a year, and Denise Coates, CEO of Bet365 earned £4.22 million in 2020. (see wikipedia)
I have profited over $100,000 playing Sugar Rush. What do I do now?
Hey. Cool video. I was a dealer for many years. I saw some of the daily balance sheets once in a while. It was a pretty consistent 10-11% on the daily drop(cash in the box). I always had a snicker, human nature makes up about 90% of their profit. Most people play according to their schedule, and habits. So when they are winning they just stay and keep playing, when they are losing, same thing. But when they are losing, if they run out of money, they are stuck. So half the time they are stuck, half the time they are playing with the casino's money and then their own money, so as it goes back to the casino, it depends on how much time they have, if they give back all the winnings or not. So unless you make youself walk out at a set win and set loss, you have around a 90% chance of losing over time. Many players, cannot beat the casino, but over time, they can minimize damage enough to make it a harmless hobby. Most activities cost something. I even know people who are up over time playing slots. Because once you are up, you don't have to leave unless it starts going back. You set yourself, say, 20% drop, andyou walk away. The night that drop never comes, you just keep going up, you never give back a win, and your losses never exceed your set amount. Luck can play a roll in your fvor over long periods, or just one good night, can pay for a year of losses.

Lol, I can't believe how long this is, that's not even what I wanted to say...

I wanted to talk about online poker. Idk if you play, but they recently started offering a new concept. As an experienced, good, and winning player, it is just wreaking havoc with my mind, lol. It's all about stats money and human nature, right up your ally. It's the 'cashout'. It's offered right in the middle of the hand, when there is an all in before the last card, and the cards are turned up, little windows pop up giving options, to continue the hand normally, or take a buyout based on your expected odds of winning the hand. So if you have AA and opponent has KK, you are all in for $1, and 85% chance to win, you can take .85 and concede the pot to the house if you end up the winner. You pay 1% if you take it. Cz theorhetically, the house is even on the offer. Holy crap, the implications this adds to the game is phenomenal, and it's the only way cash is played online now. It's too much typing to get into, but I wondered if you knew about it, and if you would do a video on it.

Cz, I play Omaha too, and it's just, fuuuuuuuuuk, what do I do?!?! Biggest thing I'm looking at right now, cz you can't figure it all out without really studying, and then there are still too many variables to track and employ in game, but it's the option to put a player all in, or go all in myself, when I normally would never, but with cashouts, getting allin might be the only way to save a losing hand, or make it worse, lol. Big risk in a risk aversion strategy. Some places offer it every round to everyone, no matter your EV. So the 15% guy that got his KK cracked, can at least take .15 back. But this, in the long run, is just 1% of your action, to the house, another rake, so most pros don't use it. But, wow, it sure makes things calm, and less swingy, which I think translates to more than 1% of my profit. It's crazy man. And knowing what the other guy is doing, if it's based on that, it just makes the biggest plays way more complicated...

A lot of weird stuff happens like this video in poker. People who are 80% agree to run it twice, when it totally hurts their odds of winning, but lessens the odds of losing. They are scared, but they took a risk, and now when it's the moment of truth, they back out, even when having an advantage. A lot of it is to do with the single session, and how it's going. If it's tough, they'll play more timid, if it's free rolling, they will gamble more, right.

The casinos, take big hits sometimes, but they never quit, and never stop playing the best odds they know, every time, and it comes back. A player can do the same thing, but the best odds they know are not in their favor. Unless you are a good poker player, then you are the casino. But 90% of players lose, why? Cz they all think they are better than they actually are. People gamble cz they think they are better, more gifted, lucky or deserving, smarter or trickier.

You can't beat the odds. The odds are a description of what happens, of reality, the sum total of reality, the part we don't see or participate in. You can't change reality. But who says the odds will be the case for one's limited piece of that experience? Nothing. In fact, most certainly will NOT have that experience. Their will be some who are luckier during their lifetime.

Idk wtf I'm rambling now, lol, I'm really interested in getting the cashout figured out. That was my whole objective with this comment.

Peace
They always use roulette or dice as an example, but things like poker and sports betting are a different sort of thing.
So, it's greed!
I don't gamble. I do math
luckily, i only gamble when i drink, im an alcoholic
overlooks the pain pleasure principal in one losing 5$ is greater than winning an extra 1.25 while in the other example winning 1000$ would give more pleasure than losing 5$ would give pain theories of economic man don't give enough thought to the specific value of a dollar to an individual if that 5$ represented a person's only money then the equation would change but if losing it would have no effect on a person's lifestyle then the 1000 becomes more attractive
Learn probability then teach your kids. Then learn marketing then teach your kids. Then learn human consumer psychology and explain that to your kids.
They are theoretically the same amount over a large sample. But the 80% chance of $6.25 will have deviations in the short terms and you could have a losing streak. Likewise you could have a winning streak and have 10 wins in a row and then just cashout and walkaway with a profit. So theoretically over a million samples yeah you get an average of $5 in the 80% case. But in the casino players don't play a million hands or spins. They play a few hundred. It is the opportunity to hit one of these winning streak deviations which causes people to gamble.
They pretty smart made these games with the chance, but i gotta say i like the kick and overall gamble / luck.
This is why you play poker or learn to count cards.
“The fear of loss is far more powerful than the promise of gain”…. What A Quote with some many life lessons.
keep everything expensive af so that you'll feed a rigged game in hopes of winning and make sure nobody can do the sam or else they'll be in deep shit. Sounds like organized crime in disguise
This content stands out for its deep and meaningful insights. I discovered a book with parallel themes that was just as inspiring. "Game Theory and the Pursuit of Algorithmic Fairness" by Jack Frostwell
Using infinite to prove a realistic point. Moron..
something felt wrong about the analogy between insurance and casinos. if anyone else felt this way, can you explain why?
This maths has lil to do with maths , bcos even abstract mathematicians know there is no infinite retry and infinite 5 dollars for this maths to work , I love how economics is like psychology for maths , bunch of half baked people pretending to know stuff they don't


What is statistics?
Statistics is a mathematical body of science that pertains to the collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data, or as a branch of mathematics.